Building a fair comparison

05Proof · a closer look

How can a comparison or staged trial support, without guaranteeing, an incremental claim?Illustrative contractor case · no figures are given or implied

Demand shiftsPricing changesSeason

Eligible requests only · the same period

AssistedQuoteDecisionDeliveredCostsComparisonQuoteDecisionDeliveredCosts

Which requests or staff were selectedAdoptionCustomers who would buy anyway

Before and afterObservation, not a comparison: season, pricing, a busier market or work brought forward can explain a rise.

A comparable territory, team or staged rollout gives a reference for what would otherwise happen. A credible design supports an incremental claim; it does not guarantee or isolate one.

Before-and-after is observation

A rise after the change may reflect season, pricing, a busier market or work brought forward from a later period. Before-and-after totals alone cannot establish how much additional business the AI change created.

A comparison needs a credible design

A comparable territory, team or staged rollout can provide a reference for what would otherwise happen. The claim depends on credible design, similar groups and periods, and checks for other changes; a comparison does not automatically identify an AI effect.

Watch selection and adoption

If the strongest estimator or easiest requests go into the assisted group, results flatter the change. If staff ignore handoffs, a weak result may reflect adoption rather than the tool itself.

Decision for your leadership teamWhich comparison group is realistic for us, and which confound concerns us most?

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